What is happening in Pakistan, is Pakistan on the brink of civil war, is it on the brink of collapse ? and disintegration, and why has this situation occurred ? what's going to happen next ? what should the world anticipate ? what should India anticipate ? and my Indian viewers will want to know whether this is the right time for India to retake )POK(Pakistan occupied Kashmir ? So let's analyze the situation let's break it down and try to gaze into the crystal ball and try to understand what could possibly happen next. So what's happened is that Imran Khan, the former Pakistan prime minister has been arrested. It was a very public arrest. They made a big spectacle of it. They could have arrested him quietly. They could have done it in the night, but they chose to arrest him in a very public manner. They sent a hundred of these Troops, We don't know how many soldiers they sent and they just look like "Storm Troopers" from the Star Wars and eventually they arrested him in in a very public manner.
Who arrested "Imran Khan" actually
This obviously was done by the Pakistan military not the Pakistan government as they simply wanted to demonstrate their power to people and want to establish that there will be no tolerance against words to the army whether it be the former PM or anyone from anywhere. Here in this event, no Pakistan government was involved. The government is only in the name. And as we know that the Pakistan Government is just a nominal government and the real power in Pakistan is the Pakistani military.
So Imran Khan was arrested by the Pakistani military. And it's been what we would call a political arrest. The charges are corruption and terrorism and maybe treason etc.. , well in the case of corruption every Pakistani politician is corrupt. The Pakistani Army in fact is the biggest source of corruption in Pakistan. When it comes to terrorism the Army is what creates terrorism. You know the slogan in Pakistan "the populace of Pakistan knows that it's the Army that's the root cause and the source of terrorism", but they have charged Imran Khan with terrorism and maybe there's treason as well. You know you can put any kind of a whole cocktail of charges on your political opponent in Pakistan{maybe anywhere}.
So this is a political arrest and for the first 24 hours or so there were rumors on social media that Imran Khan may have been killed perhaps. Was he alive, was he dead that was the speculation there was circulating on social media. There was speculation that he was being tortured. Actually it doesn't look like he is dead. It looks like he's most likely in detention. Somewhere maybe Islamabad or maybe Raul Pindi. Somewhere there , in that region. So that's what is happened. He was arrested on the 9th of May by the Pakistani Army Publicly.
History of Imran Khan as a Former Prime Minister being Arrested
Now let's understand the history behind this. So Imran Khan, as we know is a former cricketer, he was the captain of the Pakistani cricket team. He is the only World Cup winning captain that the Pakistanis have had. He is widely admired in Pakistan for his sporting achievements. So he became the prime minister of Pakistan in August of of 2018. His party is the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the PTI. That's what it's called. After this event we all know that Pakistani prime ministers, have no real power. It's just a ceremonial position. Pakistani Prime Ministers are basically military puppets. They are Mario Nets of the military. So Imran Khan was no exception to this. He was a military puppet and that's the deal that every prime minister makes with the devil{that is the Pakistani military}.
So Imran Khan became about the prime minister of Pakistan in August 2018 and then he kind of went rogue. What do I mean by the word rogue is that he tried to craft an independent multilateral foreign policy. He has always been an independent minded person. We know very well how much he admires India's Modi-Jai Shankar foreign policy. He has made a point of saying it in public. He has even played videos of either Prime Minister Modi or Dr Jai Shankar's making certain remarkable statements. and you know he shows, he uses that as an example of how a foreign policy ought to be implemented. So that's the kind of foreign policy he also kind of tried to craft for to be a strong independent nation.
First multi-aligned multi-polar foreign policy that's what India follows. And that's what Imran Khan tried to emulate. So Imran Khan engaged with various Nations, China, US, turkey and even Russia. So that's what he did and he he tried to emulate the Turkish leader Erdogan. You know the kind of Reform Pakistan had in a way along those lines. Obviously Imran Khan was not very successful, not at all because everything is not done by his will, I mean then the military controls the nation and he really could not achieve much at all, as a prime minister in his term.
Problems that led to Attack on "Imran Khan" & end of his tenure
Now what actually happened is that in February 2022. On 24 February 2022 Imran Khan was in Moscow, he reached there the day before and he met Putin, Vladimir Putin, Russia's president just few hours after the Ukraine invasion was launched. So that the Ukraine Invasion no the special military operation that's what the Russians call it in Ukraine, that kind of overshadowed totally Imran Khan's visit to Moscow. Imran Khan later refused to condemn the Ukrainian version that that was kind of the last straw for the the forces that control the Pakistani military and on the 8th of March 2022 it apparently launched a secret diplomatic cable, who was sent from the U.S urging action to be taken against Imran Khan apparently in a coup in Pakistan and then the dye was cast and in April. Imran Khan was ousted from the prime minister's Post, in a so-called "no confidence Motion" in the parliament.
So that was the end of his tenure as Pakistan's prime minister and he's been politically active since his ouster in November 22. There was apparently an assassination attempt on Imran Khan, he survived that and so on and he is still reasonably popular, maybe very popular in Pakistan especially among the supporters of the of his political party the PTI. So that's the background of "Imran Khan". So he was arrested on the ninth of may and yet we don't quite know what his whereabouts are, but what has the public response been, all hell broke loose the temper.
The moment Imran Khan was arrested the army's very public arrest evoked very strong reactions in Pakistan. There has been rioting arson and all kinds of chaos and turmoil in Pakistan. Vandalism of public property, vandalism especially of military and army property. They have attacked ISI offices, the ISIS, the secret Intelligence Agency of Pakistan, the public and the protesters have attacked Military Officers and the residences of of Pakistani military generals and there was complete chaos essentially on the night of the arrest and there is still a lot of all of this rioting Etc happening in Pakistan right now the Army the military has responded with indiscriminate indiscriminate firing on the uh protesters on the rioters there's been lots of casualties you can see the videos all over social media they have shut down the internet the uh social media is down Facebook Twitter Youtube Etc all of that is down maybe mobile services are also down so for the first 24 hours or so the military was kind of invisible the top leadership did not make much of a statement at least for the first 12 hours or so uh the so-called prime minister of Pakistan Mr Shahbaz Sharif was also very quiet very silent kind of absent then he made a statement a strong statement condemning what's happening um the military also made a very strong statement so that's been the response thus far right now there is still chaos in turmoil in Pakistan what about the international response well there has not been much of an international response there's certainly been no condemnation of the indiscriminate firing at protesters that the military has done there has been absolutely no condemnation from the west of these human rights violations nothing significant so the international response has been kind of muted and no strong statements coming from anywhere else the question is what is the outlook for Pakistan is Pakistan on the brink of civil war is it already in the throes of a Civil War and will Pakistan disintegrate that's that's a real question well my assessment is that Pakistan is not going to disintegrate as a result of what's happening right now the Pakistani military is just too strong it's too powerful it controls the Incarnation it owns the entire nation of Pakistan in most Nations the nation has an Army in Pakistan the Army has the nation it owns the nation so the Pakistani military kind of knew what was going to happen they engineered the situation in a very specific manner they first of all made a very public spectacle of the arrest of Imran Khan and they clearly wanted a very specific reaction from his supporters so that they could response then they could respond then in specific ways so the Army's response is going to be a long-term response the Army what they did was they allowed about 24 hours of this complete chaos and and this Rampage in Pakistan by the by the supporters of the PTI party Pakistan Terry gainsoff they allowed the PTI supporters and the protesters to let off steam it was it acted like kind of like a pressure release valve they allowed them to attack military installations the isi office they allowed them to vandalize uh military memorials memorials to soldiers who fought India that sort of thing looks like they wanted the situation to deteriorate deteriorate to a certain extent so that they could then step in do a Crackdown and then also justify the Crackdown right so what's happening now right now is that the Army the military is policing it's taken over police duties in the major cities of Pakistan the police I don't know where they are they may also be on the scene but it's the military that's in firm control right now or at least some control right now they are policing the major cities of Pakistan and there are crackdowns happening right now on the citizenry of Pakistan and the people who support Imran Khan especially right this is happening more or less throughout Pakistan what we have also seen is that the Pakistani people the avam the janta of Pakistan the the citizens have lost trust in the Army at least significant uh portions of the populace they have lost trust in the army they call this a terrorist Army right they say that the Pakistani army is behind the terror that you find all across Pakistan so we see that the people of Pakistan are openly displaying demonstrating their contempt and their dislike for the Pakistani army which is a significant turning point we haven't really seen that so openly uh out there in the public until now what could happen now is that the PTI Imran Khan's party will most likely be accused of being anti-pakistan anti-national they may even along the way be accused of having links with India especially because of these attacks on military installations on the residences of generals on the isi office which all is out there in in social media so the the political party could be accused of having links with India and with uh anti-pakistan forces we know that the main India by that right so in the long run this situation will actually allow the military to consolidate power right and the reason the real reason why Pakistan will not disintegrate right now right now in the short term to medium term is because Pakistan is too important geopolitically we have to understand the geography the geography of Pakistan is the key to its importance Pakistan is not a great producer of anything valuable for the world it's actually the world's uh Center of terrorism but it's extremely important geopolitically Pakistan was created to cut Russia's access off from the warm Waters of the Southern Ocean the Indian Ocean Russia craves access to the warm Waters of the Indian Ocean and Pakistan was was custom created custom built to cut Russia's access off from the um Indian Ocean and also the other purpose that Pakistan serves because of its geography is that it denies India its historic and traditional access to Central Asia and Via Central Asia to Europe right so Pakistan became so ever since Pakistan was created artificially it's an artificial Nation it has essentially served as a pawn in a bigger geopolitical game it's always taken a pro-west stance it's Army its armed forces are it's a mercenary army they they will do whatever their pay masters tell them to do so they have always supported the West for most of their history after 1947 1948 Pakistan became specifically important after the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the Americans used Pakistani uh you know they used the Pakistani army to train the mujahideen who were fighting the Soviet Union lots of money was was injected into the Pakistani military they were given whatever arms and ammunition and weapon systems they wanted f-16s whatever right after the invasion eventually ended I think in 1989 these mujahideen these terrorists were routed into Kashmir even before that the Pakistani terrorism was being funded by uh against India Pakistani terrorism against India was being funded by the United States we know that the U.S funded Pakistani terrorist activities in India for decades um that Pakistan also became the staging ground for the 2001 U.S invasion of Afghanistan so that's that's again when Pakistan was especially important for the U.S then we had the 2008 Mumbai Terror attacks which were done by Pakistan and using Pakistani terrorists uh after that the U.S uh you know support for Pakistan kind of petered down for some time and in the 2010s Pakistan was on Chinas China's payroll so in the 2010s you had this Embrace between Pakistan and China Pakistan became a Chinese client state for a decade or so Chinese vasal they called themselves the iron Brothers yeah and then we had the ouster of Imran Khan which is which happened just a year or so year and a half ago and that essentially signified Pakistan going back into the U.S fold so the so the Pakistani nation is now very much once again a U.S client State it's a U.S vasal state and the purpose this serves a two-fold purpose first of all to um to counter China because now the U.S is focusing very strongly on China it started with President Trump's trade war on China but now the the anti-China activities are really intensifying from the U.S perspective and one can understand why they do it they see China is a major threat and they want to ensure that uh the Chinese uh belt and Road initiative the China-pakistan economic Corridor all these things don't materialize so that's one reason the other reason is that now finally after Decades of mediocrity India is rising as a major world power and the only economy that is projected to surpass the US in the 21st century is India China is no longer in a position to do that because of a variety of factors so India is now being regarded by the U.S as a long-term adversary or a long-term competitor India is not a very dangerous Nation by any sense from any perspective in 2023 India has a 3.5 trillion dollar economy and the moderate military which can which can take care of its its borders and that's all but India is growing in 20 years time India could be a 10 trillion dollar economy and it would have a much larger economic and Military footprint so this is the time that the U.S thinks is right to start countering India and Pakistan is obviously a great tool for doing that so the US is using Pakistan as a hedge against China as well as India so China so Pakistan is extremely important for the U.S for the west and they will not allow it to disintegrate so what's going to happen next what should the world anticipate what should India anticipate so what's going to happen now is that the Army is actually going to consolidate power in Pakistan the nation is permanently in crisis it's a cash-strapped nation it's near bankrupt uh there is a like I said a huge loss of confidence among the populists uh towards the Pakistani army what we could see is that if the crisis escalates see the economic crisis is there it's permanent they are always dependent on duels from the World Bank the IMF from the from China in the past maybe from the us in the future the nation is always on the brink of of economic collapse but it's not quite collapsing so if the situation deteriorates if there is more and more let's say an outpouring of anger against the Army if the Army finds itself in a tight corner under extreme pressure they will instigate trouble with India they will launch they will at least attempt to launch major terrorist attacks Terror attacks in the Kashmir Valley and in other parts of India they will try to ratchet up the tensions with India so that there will be a military confrontation of some some kind maybe just you know lots of firing across the border and all that and once that happens it will bring back the Pakistani populace back on the Army side because yeah we are now facing an existential threat that's what the Army will say so if the situation deteriorates you can expect the Pakistanis to try to instigate trouble with India that's what we can anticipate in the short term the next three to six to 12 months that's something that could very much happen so the Indian government obviously will anticipate this and they'll be prepared for that but this is something we could be seeing perhaps in the coming months perhaps I I hope it doesn't happen it could happen yeah long term what we can see if we look at the long term uh prospects of Pakistan Pakistan is not a viable nation in the long term it's an artificial nation that was created to serve external geopolitical interests what we are seeing right now in the past two three decades in Pakistan we are witnessing increasing intra-ethnic conflict between the various ethnicities in Pakistan the Punjabis Dominate the entire nation the Balochis are horribly exploited the Pashtoons want to reintegrate their Homeland with Afghanistan the similes are disenfranchised the the Kashmiris the Gilgit the Baltistanis are horribly exploited in marginalized and terrorized so there is this tremendous increasing intra ethnic conflict in Pakistan there is tremendous radicalization that's been happening since the 1980s there is a lot of internal discontent that is growing increasing internal discontent the populace of the of the nation increasingly mistrusts the Army the Army is synonymous with Terror it terrorizes and exploits the people of various provinces of Pakistan the people are starving the Army generals on the other hand live lives of Staggering luxury their families live abroad if you look at the houses or in residences of various the top Pakistani generals they live in they they have an incredibly lavish lifestyle that that puts the you know the the the you know the kind of luxuries they have in their houses their homes they put the home of the In The House of the Indian Prime Minister and president to to you know you can compare the two that that's how luxurious their homes are so the Army the military enjoys the the fruits of everything the Pakistani nation has and the people are starving and the people are living are living in poverty the Pakistani economy has no future it's doomed the nation is perpetually surviving on handouts from the W from the World Bank IMF China the us all that so in the long term the nation is not viable right now Pakistan is on the brink on the brink of becoming a nation comparable to Yemen or Somalia or Sudan and the nation will eventually disintegrate the question is when will the nation disintegrate and what is going to be the trigger for that disintegration what's going to be the spark that sets off the eventual disintegration of the nation and to understand that we have to understand that the only thing that is holding Pakistan together is the Pakistani military so the So eventually whenever the collapse happens it's going to be triggered off with something that happens in the military maybe a Schism in the military may be a coup or maybe a military feeling maybe some general feeling the top General perhaps feeling that Pakistan is no longer uh you know there's no long-term future in Pakistan so whatever causes the collapse of Pakistan eventually it's going to start from the Pakistani military so that is the situation right now Pakistan is maybe on the brink of Civil War but definitely not on the brink of imminent disintegration and collapse uh the long-term future isn't great for Pakistan uh as you all know I don't have any ill will towards the people of Pakistan but the nation is a terrorist nation and eventually like I say it's a temporary Nation eventually it will collapse the question is when I would give it three to five years perhaps this collapse so let's see how it goes yeah and we're gonna keep an eye we're gonna keep an eye on the situation we're going to keep following the situation and uh yeah so that's that's it for me for today and I will see you in the next video thank you for watching
