The Secret Sauce Behind Karnataka's Success Story: A Financial and Social Analysis In Comparison to States ft. Gujarat , Tamil Nadu , Delhi

 

"Karnataka's progress in reducing poverty and improving social indicators is a testament to the state government's commitment to inclusive development. However, there is still a lot of work to be done, especially in improving healthcare and education." - Ratan Tata


The Karnataka election campaign is in full swing and the political warfare is heating up with extreme allegations being overthrown by political parties. However, the focus of the media seems to be on propagandist debates rather than informing the citizens on how to assess a state's performance. Let us try to fathom the Financial & Social scenario

Karnataka's success story

Financial Indicators:

The financial indicators are essential to analyze any government's monetary growth. Let's understand how Karnataka State is managing its tax base money. As per the latest data, the Karnataka government has collected over Rs. 1.3 lakh crore in revenue in the financial year 2021-22. Additionally, the state government has shown a considerable increase in its tax collection, which is a good sign for economic growth.


The government is making the state more conducive for new industries to be built. Karnataka has been the nexus of India's IT industry, and now the state government is focusing on developing the manufacturing sector to create job opportunities for the youth. The government has introduced policies that encourage startups and entrepreneurship, and with the announcement of the Bengaluru Innovation Corridor, the state is set to witness significant growth in a multitude of fields


Beautiful Modern Cities

Social Indicators:

The social indicators are crucial to analyze any government's efforts in uplifting the people from the bottom of the pyramid. Karnataka has shown considerable progress in reducing poverty and starvation rates. According to the latest data, the state's poverty rate has decreased from 20.91% in 2011 to 15.60% in 2020. Additionally, Karnataka's human development index (HDI) has improved from 0.50 in 1990 to 0.64 in 2020.


However, there is still a long way to go in improving the social indicators. Karnataka has a high infant mortality rate, and the government needs to focus on improving the healthcare sector. The literacy rate of the state is also below the national average, and the government needs to focus on improving the quality of education in the state.


The financial and social indicators are crucial to assessing any government's performance. Karnataka has shown considerable progress in improving its financial and social indicators, but there is still a long way to go. The government needs to focus on improving the healthcare and education sector to uplift the people from the bottom of the pyramid. With the right policies and implementation, Karnataka can become a model state for other states to follow.


Beautiful City of Karnataka

When analyzing any government, two categories of indicators should be considered: financial and social. The state needs to have a fine balance between economic growth and social security for its people. Let's first dive into the financial metrics of the state of Karnataka.


The first indicator is the government debt to Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) ratio. This is the ratio of government debt to the state's GDP. If the government has 100 crores in debt and 500 crores in GDP, then the debt to GSDP ratio is 100 divided by 500 into 100, which is 20 percent.


The indicative targets of the 15th Finance Commission lie between 33 to 35 percent. According to India's Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act 2005, the prescribed ceiling for the debt to GSDP ratio is 25. If this number exceeds 25, it's not good for the state.


Looking at Karnataka's debt to GSDP ratio from 2017 to 2021, it has gone up from 18.78 percent in 2017 to 19.87 percent in 2019 and 26.61 percent in 2021. This increase is mainly due to the pandemic. However, it is estimated that the debt to GSDP ratio for FY23 in Karnataka will be 24.2 percent, which is slightly below the mandated number of 25.


Moving on to social gauges, we need to consider how the state government is uplifting people from the bottom of the pyramid. Karnataka has been performing well in terms of social indicators. As per the latest data available, the poverty rate in Karnataka is 15 percent, which is lower than the national average of 21 percent.


Moreover, the state's literacy rate is 77 percent, which is higher than the national average of 74 percent. The sex ratio in Karnataka is 973 females per 1000 males, which is higher than the national average of 943 females per 1000 males.


Females versus Males

Karnataka has been managing its finances well, despite the pandemic's impact. The state's debt to GSDP ratio is estimated to be slightly below the mandated number of 25 in FY23. Karnataka's social indicators, such as the poverty rate, literacy rate, and sex ratio, are all favorable, indicating that the state government is doing a good job of uplifting its people.


To get a clear understanding of what fiscal deficit means, let's take an example. If the Karnataka government has expenses of 1,000 crores but its revenues are only 800 crores, then the fiscal deficit will be 200 crores. Fiscal deficit can be seen as a measure of how much a state borrows to meet its expenses. While it's not a bad thing for the government to borrow money, excessive borrowing can lead to financial volatility.


As per the 15th Finance Commission's indicative targets, the fiscal deficit of states should be below 4 percent of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). In Karnataka, the fiscal deficit has been on the rise since 2017, with it being at 2.68 percent in 2017, 2.81 percent in 2019, and 4.32 percent in 2021. It is estimated that the fiscal deficit for FY23 will be around 4.1 percent. This shows that Karnataka's fiscal deficit is on the higher side, which could lead to concerns regarding the state's financial stability.


Financial Stability in a bag

The last metric to consider is the revenue surplus/deficit. This metric reflects the difference between the total revenue earned by the state government and its total expenditure, excluding borrowings. If a state's revenue surplus is positive, it means that the state's revenue is more than its expenditure, and if it's negative, it means the state's expenditure is more than its revenue.


Ideally, a state should have a revenue surplus as it signifies financial stability. As per the 15th Finance Commission's indicative targets, the revenue surplus of states should be above 0.5 percent of GSDP. In Karnataka, the revenue surplus has been on the decline since 2017, with it being at 0.17 percent in 2017, 0.06 percent in 2019, and -0.16 percent in 2021. It is estimated that the revenue surplus for FY23 will be around -0.07 percent. This indicates that the state's expenditure is more than its revenue, which could lead to financial instability in the long run.


While Karnataka has seen economic growth over the years, it is essential to keep a keen eye on its financial metrics to ensure long-term financial consistency. The state needs to prioritize on reducing its debt-to-GSDP ratio, interest payments to revenue receipts, fiscal deficit, and increasing its revenue surplus. By doing so, Karnataka can create a conducive environment for new industries to be built and uplift the lives of people from the bottom of the pyramid, while also achieving its economic growth targets.


Karnataka Economic Growth

Financial Indicators of Karnataka: Examining the State's Fiscal Health

As a state's economic growth is directly related to the prosperity of its people, it is crucial to maintain a balance between economic development and social security. In this article, we will analyze Karnataka's financial metrics and compare them with those of other states in India to gain a holistic understanding of the state's fiscal health.


The first indicator to consider is the government debt-to-Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) ratio. This ratio is obtained by dividing the government's debt by its GSDP. According to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act 2005, the prescribed ceiling for this ratio is 25%. If this number exceeds 25%, it is not good for the state. Karnataka's debt-to-GSDP ratio has increased from 18.78% in 2017 to 26.61% in 2021 due to the pandemic. However, it is estimated that the ratio will be 24.2% in FY23, which is just below the mandated number.


The second metric is interest payments to revenue receipts. If a significant portion of the state's revenue is going towards paying interest on loans, it will have less money to invest in productive domains. According to RBI, this number should ideally be less than 10%. While some states like Bihar, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh are below this threshold, states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and West Bengal are paying high interest payments. As of 2021-22, Karnataka's interest payment to revenue receipts ratio is at 15.15%, which is above the mandated limit of 10%.


Revenue Receipts in Karnataka

The third variable to consider is the fiscal deficit of the state. When a state government's total expenditure exceeds its total revenues during a particular fiscal year, it is considered to have a fiscal deficit, excluding borrowings. As per the guidelines, states are allowed to have a fiscal deficit of 3.5% of their GSDP, and anything above this is not considered good. Karnataka's fiscal deficit stood at 2.84% in 2022, which is below the mandated threshold. Moreover, in the latest state budget of FY24, the fiscal deficit is expected to be 2.6% of the GSDP.


Despite these optimistic indicators, there is one big concern with Karnataka's revenue collection. RBI has flagged Karnataka's revenue collection in one of its documents, and the state's GST collection has been a cause for concern. It is being misused and has been putting a burden on common people. The state government has requested the central finance ministry to extend the GST compensation by three years and ease restrictions on businesses.


While Karnataka's financial metrics are better than many other states, the state must be vigilant in managing its finances and ensure that the collected revenue is utilized for productive purposes. Moreover, the state should focus on improving its GST collection mechanism to enhance its revenue collection and reduce the burden on its citizens.


Rahul Gandhi's Proposal for One Tax System


On May 13, 2023, Rahul Gandhi announced that if his party comes to power in 2024, he will replace the current Goods and Services Tax (GST) with a single tax system. But before we delve into Rahul Gandhi's proposal, let's understand how the current GST system works.


The GST System - How it Works


The GST System

Under the old tax system, taxes were levied at different stages of the supply chain, and tax-on-tax was prevalent. However, the GST system aims to provide a single taxation system that replaces all the indirect taxes levied on goods and services in India. The GST is a value-added tax levied on the sale of goods and services, and it is divided into different tax brackets based on the nature of the goods and services.


Here's a simple example of how the GST system works: Let's say a pack of juice costs INR 100 to manufacture, with a profit margin of INR 10, which means the cost of production is INR 110. The fruit juices fall under the 12% GST category, so adding another 12% to this amount, we get a total of INR 123.2, which is the amount that the manufacturer will invoice to the next entity in the supply chain, who is the wholesaler.


The wholesaler, who has purchased the juice at INR 123.2, will have to add a profit margin of 10% on the cost of production, which is INR 110, and not on the invoice value of INR 123.2. Since the invoice value of INR 123.2 already includes a tax of INR 13.2, the wholesaler is eligible for an input tax credit. The value added by the wholesaler must be added to the basic sale price of the retailer, which is INR 110. If the wholesaler adds another 10% to the sales price of INR 110, the juice's cost becomes INR 121. Now, the GST of 12% is added to this amount of INR 121, which is INR 14.52. Adding it up, the final cost of the same juice in the GST system is INR 135.52.

                       Taxes and Services


Rahul Gandhi's Proposal

Now that we have understood how the GST system works let's talk about Rahul Gandhi's proposal. If the Congress party comes to power in 2024, Rahul Gandhi has proposed to replace the current GST system with a single tax system, which would simplify the current tax structure. He has stated that he will not have the GST but just one tax, but the specifics of the proposal are yet to be announced.


The current GST system has faced criticism from various quarters, and Rahul Gandhi's proposal to replace it with a single tax system has gained attention. However, the success of the proposed tax system would depend on how it is implemented and its impact on the economy. Nonetheless, the proposal is a step towards addressing the issues faced by the current tax structure and bringing in a simplified taxation system.


The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India has been a topic of much debate and controversy. While some argue that it has simplified the taxation system and made it more transparent, others believe that it has had negative effects on the economy, particularly on the states. In this article, we will discuss some of the issues that have arisen with the implementation of GST and how it has impacted the states.


GST over time , beneficiary to country but nightmare for taxpayers

One of the major issues with GST is the collection and dissemintaion of taxes by the central government. This has resulted in a disparity between the producer states and the consumer states. To understand this, let us take an example of a packet of potato chips manufactured in Chennai and sold in Patna. Bihar would collect tax on the potato chips consumed in Bihar, even if they were manufactured in Tamil Nadu. If 12 IGST is collected in Bihar on potato chips, then six rupees goes to the consuming state and six rupees goes to the center. From this share of the center, the central government might allocate a certain amount to the producer state. This has become problematic as states like Tamil Nadu have made massive investments in infrastructure like roads, highways, and ports, creating a conducive ecosystem for manufacturing to thrive. Until GST came in, they were entitled to extract a return on their investment by claiming taxes at the point of origin where the goods were manufactured. Now, this major income source is at stake, leading to objections from states like Tamil Nadu.


The implementation of GST has also caused mayhem in the market, affecting businesses. Suddenly, the entire taxation system was revolutionized across the country, and states lost out on revenue due to supply chain disruptions. The incomes of the states have dropped drastically after GST. This has affected businesses as well as consumers, who have had to pay higher prices due to the increased tax rates. 


The implementation of GST has had a mixed impact on the economy. While it has simplified the taxation system to some extent, it has also caused disruptions and disparities between states. The issues related to the distribution of taxes and revenue sharing must be addressed to ensure that the GST system is fair and beneficial for all.


The Implementation of GST and Its Impact on Karnataka


The implementation of GST had a significant impact on the state of Karnataka, both financially and socially. In this article, we will discuss the effects of GST on Karnataka in terms of financial and social indicators.


Data and finance across Karnataka and states

Power of Data

The implementation of GST was a jolt to the system, and the central government knew that the state governments would face revenue losses. To reimburse for this, the central government promised to create a projection for five years and reckon it with the actual GST revenues. The central government created a GST compensation fund to pay the states, and this is where the SAS was implemented across India. However, this promise came to an end in June 2022, and while some states managed to recover their revenues, Karnataka hasn't done a great job. Post-GST, Karnataka has one of the lowest revenue growth rates among the major states, falling from 12.6% to 3.3% from pre to post GST. Meanwhile, Maharashtra is at 9.5%, Gujarat is at 7.2%, UP is at 11.3%, Telangana is at 12.2%, and Tamil Nadu is at 6%.


Social Indicators


Apart from the financial aspect, the state of Karnataka is also facing issues in terms of social indicators. The government is supposed to provide education, healthcare, and social welfare to its people. However, even basic amenities like bicycles, shoes, socks, and sanitary pads are not made available to the students. Many senior leaders have accused the government and the health minister of negligence. The state of Karnataka is likely to witness an in-depth massive strike by government employees.


Social Factors

Education is a fundamental social indicator, and we need to study something called the Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) to understand it. Karnataka's GER stood at just 32%, way below the National Education Policy's target of 50% as of 2020. In the same year, Tamil Nadu stood at 51.4%, Delhi was at 48%, and Gujarat was even worse at 21.3%. As of 2022, Karnataka had 1.41 lakh vacant teacher posts in government schools and colleges. Barely 60% of its 15 to 16-year-olds actually entered the 11th grade.


Key Takeaways:

Takeaways of War

- The implementation of GST had a significant impact on the state of Karnataka, both financially and socially.

- The central government promised to compensate the state governments for revenue losses for five years after the implementation of GST.

- However, this promise ended in June 2022, and Karnataka hasn't done a great job in recovering its revenues.

- Post-GST, Karnataka has one of the lowest revenue growth rates among the major states.

- Karnataka is facing issues in terms of social indicators like education, healthcare, and social welfare.

- The state of Karnataka is likely to witness an in-depth massive strike by government employees.

- Karnataka's GER stood at just 32%, way below the National Education Policy's target of 50% as of 2020.

- Karnataka had 1.41 lakh vacant teacher posts in government schools and colleges as of 2022.

- Barely 60% of Karnataka's 15 to 16-year-olds actually entered the 11th grade.


School going Students of Karnataka

As per the analysis of Karnataka's government, the state is facing a severe crisis in its education, healthcare, and social welfare sectors. Although the government is considered to be doing well in terms of business, it has been neglecting its responsibilities towards the well-being of its people. Let's take a closer look at each of these sectors and understand the impact of the government's actions.


Education

Karnataka's education system has been under severe criticism due to its low Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER). The GER measures the number of students enrolled in higher education institutions, regardless of their age, divided by the total population in the official higher education age group, into 100. As of 2020, the National Education Policy aimed to increase the GER to 50%. However, Karnataka's GER stands at a mere 32%, far below states like Tamil Nadu (51.4%) and Delhi (48%). Moreover, Karnataka has 1.41 lakh vacant teacher posts in government schools and colleges, affecting the quality of education.


Healthcare

The government of Karnataka spends only 0.7% of its GDP on healthcare, which is way below the expected spending of 3% by a state government. The impact of this cut in spending is disastrous, with Karnataka having an infant mortality rate three times higher than that of Kerala. Also, 46% more children die within a year in Karnataka than in Tamil Nadu. The National Family Health Survey 5 shows that Karnataka has 97 institutional deliveries with registered births, with two-thirds of these births in public facilities. This indicates that women, babies, and infants are dying due to a lack of quality healthcare or negligence by public institutions.

                       Healthcare

Social Welfare

Karnataka is spending only 38.8% of its total expenditure on the social sector, way below the national average of 42.4%. This reflects poorly on the state's efforts towards uplifting its people from the bottom of the pyramid.


Ease of Business

On the business front, Karnataka is becoming an ideal destination for investment. The government is actively promoting industrial development through public-private partnerships and competitive policies. Many big names, both Indian and foreign, have set up businesses in the state, making it a stage of continuous progress.


The government of Karnataka must focus on these aspects in the next five years to uplift the people and provide them with better facilities. It must allocate sufficient funds towards education, healthcare, and social welfare sectors while continuing to promote business growth.


For any state to prosper and bloom, it constantly needs to attract businesses to the state. When more and more companies come in, they provide employment, pay taxes, and amplify the economy of the state. To attract companies and corporates, the state government needs to build a conducive business ecosystem and infrastructure.


As far as the Karnataka government is concerned, the first thing that comes to mind is Bengaluru, which is the IT powerhouse of India. Karnataka has done a phenomenal job with ease of business in Bengaluru. In the past three years, they have done something even more exceptional.


In 2017, the central government's Department for Promotion of Trade and Industry released a ranking called the Ease of Doing Business ranking. Karnataka was ranked 8th in 2017 but slipped to 19th position in 2019. However, the DPIIT suggested 187 reforms to be executed, and the government of Karnataka implemented 100 of these reforms. Now, Karnataka ranks as the number one state in ease of doing business in the same table.


To achieve this, 30 plus state departments harmonized to implement various reforms across areas ranging from the most bureaucratic practices like affidavit clearance, land reforms, central inspection system, single window clearance, to even sectorial policies.


The result is impressive. During the first two quarters of 2021-22, Karnataka accounted for 48% and 41% of the total foreign direct investment in India, respectively. This is how swift the government of Karnataka is with ease of doing business.


Based on the numbers, the agenda of the parties, and the performance of the parties, you can choose the candidate of your choice.


Key Takeaways

- To attract businesses, a state needs to build a conducive business ecosystem and infrastructure.

- Karnataka has done a phenomenal job with ease of business in Bengaluru.

- In 2019, Karnataka slipped to 19th position in the Ease of Doing Business ranking.

- However, the government of Karnataka implemented 100 of the 187 suggested reforms by the DPIIT.

- Now, Karnataka ranks as the number one state in ease of doing business in India.

- To achieve this, 30 plus state departments coordinated to implement various reforms across areas.

- During the first two quarters of 2021-22, Karnataka accounted for 48% and 41% of the total foreign direct investment in India, respectively.


        Development in India


In conclusion, Karnataka is a state that presents both opportunities and challenges for the government and its citizens. Despite making impressive progress in the convenience of doing business, there are still regions where the state lags behind, especially in key social indicators such as education and healthcare. As the state gears up for the upcoming elections, it is crucial for political parties to prioritize these areas and work towards enhancing the quality of life for the people or the *Janta*. With a rich cultural heritage, a thriving startup ecosystem, and a skilled workforce, Karnataka has enormous potential to become a pioneer for other states. By investing in its people and creating a business-friendly environment, the state can unveil its full potential and achieve sustainable growth, prosperity, and attract wealth in the long run.


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  1. really a remarkable article. the news media should also focus on development factors, and not on sole Political Party ethics. really top-notch and love the way it was presented. quite great and remarkable to say. great job team, luv your efforts

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    1. Thanks a lot , please do review our other articles and suggest errors and points of improvements .

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